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Synopsis: HDFC Bank is expected to post a year-on-year increase of up to 7% in Profit After Tax (PAT) and a rise of around 9% in Net Interest Income (NII) for the fourth quarter of FY25, with asset quality and credit costs likely to show improvement.
HDFC Bank, India’s largest private-sector lender, is scheduled to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter of FY25 today, April 19, 2025. As per projections from top financial brokerages such as IIFL Capital, Elara Capital, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, and Nuvama Institutional Equities, the bank is likely to report a modest rise in profitability, reflecting strong operational stability despite challenges in the sector.
The bank’s PAT is projected to grow by as much as 7% year-on-year, touching approximately Rs17,650 crore, while Net Interest Income may surge up to Rs31,640 crore, indicating a rise of about 9% from the corresponding quarter last year. However, estimates vary across brokerages. Elara Capital has taken a more conservative view, estimating a 2.5% YoY PAT growth to Rs16,918 crore and a 7.8% rise in NII to Rs31,333 crore. Meanwhile, Nuvama expects a PAT of Rs17,050 crore with a 7.5% increase in NII to Rs31,270 crore.
One of the critical positives highlighted by analysts is the expected improvement in HDFC Bank’s asset quality, driven by lower slippages and the absence of one-off impacts such as the Kisan Credit Card-related stress seen in the previous quarter. Credit costs are also expected to improve both on a yearly and quarterly basis, further strengthening the bank’s bottom line. While the overall growth outlook remains positive, there are concerns regarding potential pressure on Net Interest Margins (NIMs), especially due to the tightening liquidity environment.
Brokerages are also watching closely for management commentary on loan growth and deposit trends. The bank’s deposit base grew faster than its advances this quarter, with deposits up by 5.9% to Rs27.15 trillion and gross advances rising by 4% to Rs26.44 trillion. This indicates HDFC Bank's strategic focus on improving its funding base and maintaining a healthy loan-to-deposit ratio. Analysts from Elara have noted that the bank’s credit-deposit ratio may fall to around 94–95%, with stable NIMs expected despite macroeconomic headwinds.
Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) estimates are mixed, with Nuvama forecasting a 14% decline to Rs25,190 crore, while IIFL predicts a stronger performance at Rs26,610 crore—up 21% YoY. These variances point to different assumptions on cost efficiency and provisioning strategies.
The banking sector as a whole is expected to post subdued earnings for Q4 FY25 due to pressure on NIMs and rising caution in the unsecured and microfinance segments. Nonetheless, HDFC Bank is poised to remain among the better-performing private lenders owing to its strong asset quality, operational metrics, and prudent risk management.
Along with HDFC Bank, Yes Bank and ICICI Bank are also set to announce their results today, giving investors a broader view of the performance trends across the Indian banking industry.
Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available data and analyst estimates as of April 19, 2025. Readers are advised to refer to official results and statements released by the bank for accurate and updated information.
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